PLAY
Price is still there, information is confirmed, and a model has cleared the bar below. Small. Never a desk parlay. Nothing on the site is a PLAY today.
Same rule on every sport
PLAY, LEAN, PASS.
A desk that only publishes winners is an ad. PASS is still a result. What we sell is information and risk-checking, not picks.
LEAN
Direction is right, number is average. Note it. Do not force it. The desk is not issuing leans.
PASS
No edge, missing information, or the number already left. This is the mark on every current card. PASS is still a result.
Model scorecard
Elo and EPA were tested out of sample on 2023–25 against closing lines. They trained on 2012–22. They did not beat the close. At −110 the break-even win rate is 52.38%. Until a model clears the bar, the desk does not publish a win rate, an edge, a rating, or a PLAY.
| Model | ATS or O/U | ROI at −110 | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo, sides | 48.7% | −6.9% | 816 games |
| EPA, sides | 47.4% | −9.2% | 2023–25 test |
| EPA, totals | 51.8% | −1.1% | Still under 52.38% |
Source: SiSports out-of-sample reports, checked with this build on Oct 15, 2026. To clear the bar later: more than 52.38% at −110, at least 200 bets, positive ROI, and positive average closing-line value, fixed before the test. No retuning on the test set.
Where numbers come from
- NFL and college lines: ESPN scoreboard, DraftKings price inside that feed, stamped with the pull time.
- NHL schedule: the NHL schedule API. Goalies stay unconfirmed until a starter is verified.
- Outdoor weather: Open-Meteo, game-day hour, not a roof stadium.
- Missing fields show — . We do not fill them in.